Stage 7: Analyze and Learn

Regular monitoring should aim to analyze the progress towards achieving outcomes, as we have argued above. (It must also analyze outputs and document inputs.) For instance, seasonal surveys of a small sample of the community can be used to analyze the seasonal variation of food security and other parameters.However, a systematic and robust analysis of outcomes requires a larger effort: representative surveys with sufficiently high levels of precision to detect statistically significant changes (such as those deployed as a baseline, midline, and finish line) require many person-days to prepare, conduct, and analyze. Similarly, comprehensive and detailed reviews of the health status of ecosystems and their likely protective function and growth require substantial time.Therefore, plan for these important reviews. As a rule of thumb, conduct at least one mid-term review for projects with a 3-4 year implementation period, and at least one such review every two years for longer projects.Carry out additional ad hoc reviews if your project encounters substantial roadblocks and problems. Early action may save your project and set it back on track!Furthermore, consider commissioning thematic studies of key aspects that are crucial to your project. Examples include the analysis of institutional or legal analysis to explore options for conservation arrangements such as Marine Protected Areas (MPA), analysis of behavior change communication (BCC) strategies, or of market conditions for alternative livelihoods. Such thematic studies are very valuable if a) there is an evident information gap (scan for existing studies first!), b) your team and steering committee does not have the required skills, and c) the study can benefit multiple projects.

1. Systematically analyze outcomes

The two dilemmas of DRR (the invisible success and the fact that ‘avoided losses’ are abstract) have been highlighted earlier. If your target area encounters a hazard event during or after implementation, conduct a post-hazard review.These can be extremely useful to a) illustrate and analyze the protective benefit, b) reveal lessons as to how the overall solution can be further enhanced and c) to identify damages to ecosystems and other structural measures. Ultimately, these reviews can lead to more or renewed community engagement and to more effective arrangements. In many cases, they may make an invisible success visible.These reviews should be carried out with the steering committee, as well as with the wider community. Prepare the exercise well and be mindful of appropriate timing: don’t overwhelm a community if members are too busy rebuilding, however, try to complete the review within six months after the hazard event.The <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/prjs7l53knyi49r/F.6%20Hazard%20event%20review.docx?dl=0" target="_blank">hazard event review tool</a> may be used for this purpose. It includes sections on the hazard strength, the damages and losses, the performance of ecosystems and other structural and non-structural measures, a comparative section (with past hazards and no-action counterfactual as reference points), as well as on lessons learned and actions for improvements.&nbsp;

2. Conduct hazard event reviews

Systematic reviews of outcomes and performance during hazards are only as powerful as the extent to which their findings are used. Don’t do them if you don’t plan to act on them.Numerous examples exist in which mid-term reviews, thematic studies and hazard event reviews led to substantial improvements — in turn, helping to achieve greater impact.So be open to learn, to inquire, to adjust and to plan again.&nbsp;It is a great practice if members of your team, steering committee and the community are closely involved in such studies. Don’t simply outsource the study and wait for the report.Make sure that the findings are communicated and widely understood by all. This allows everyone to get involved and to contribute to adjustments.Just as you did in the initial planning, make sure that community, government and stakeholders remain engaged. Much like the initial plan, any adjustments should be locally owned!&nbsp;

3. Learn and adjust to maximize impact 

Use the Word-based <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/prjs7l53knyi49r/F.6%20Hazard%20event%20review.docx?dl=0" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 163, 224); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Hazard Event Review</a> to systematically analyze the difference that your DRR measures made in the hazard event. The tool is also useful to identify needs for improvements to these measures. Share the results of your review widely.

Toolbox explanation: Hazard Event Review

<a href="https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/1310403-Road-Map-to-Community-Resilience-Final-Version_EN-08.pdf" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">The Road Map to Community Resilience (IFRC 2020)</a>The Blue Guide's stage 7 has no exact equivalent in the Road Map – the systematic analysis described here goes beyond the regular monitoring. If you follow the Road Map, you can see stage 7 as a logical extension.<a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/publications/natural-and-nature-based-flood-management-a-green-guide" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">The Flood Management Green Guide (WWF 2016)</a>The Blue Guide's stage 7 has no exact equivalent in the Green Guide. However, the Green Guide discusses the value of documenting lessons learned. TOOL: Hazard Event Review. Use the Word-based hazard event review found in the toolbox on this page to systematically analyze the difference that your DRR measures made in the hazard event. The tool is also useful to identify needs for improvements to these measures. Share the results of your review widely. Are you finished with Analyze and Learn? Move on to&nbsp;Stage 8: Share and Expand.

How this stage (Analyze and Learn) Links to...

Learn how to reflect and adjust in order to maximize impact with these steps in this stage:<ul><li>Step 7.1 | Systematically analyze outcomes</li><li>Step 7.2 | Conduct post-hazard reviews</li><li>Step 7.3 | Learn and adjust to maximize impact&nbsp;</li></ul>You have already learned about the importance of short feedback loops as a key to remain agile. Beyond continuous monitoring, invest in deep learning and analysis at regular intervals. Bring in external experts to facilitate learning amongst everybody involved in your effort.